Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
