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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.