This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

It was two months ago when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Sideline Explosion of Triumph

On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per Opta, in only two games has the team had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The winger could transform into the player he was during his peak.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt

Elena Visser is an architect and sustainability advocate with over a decade of experience in eco-design.